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Project properties |
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| Title | Research into an improved of probabilistic forecasting system for severe weather |
| Group | Meteorology and Air Quality Group |
| Project type | internship |
| Credits | 36 |
| Supervisor(s) | Maurice Schmeits (KNMI) |
| Examiner(s) | Bert Holtslag, Arnold Moene |
| Contact info | Maurice Schmeits, telefoonnummer: 030-2206858, e-mail: Maurice.Schmeits@knmi.nl
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| Begin date | 2018/10/01 |
| End date | 2019/10/01 |
| Description | General information
The group R&D Weather and Climate models develops, improves, runs and analyses weather and climate models for products like weather forecasts and climate projections, based on knowledge on the major physical processes, sources of variabilitya and techniques to measure model quality. Function information KNMI has been using an operational probabilistic forecasting system for more than 10 years for (heavy) thunderstorms. This system consists of logistic regression equations. Recently, many new statistical and machine learning techniques have been introduced for generating probability forecasts. The aim of this research is to apply these new techniques to fit and compare its skill for forecasting (heavy) storm. In the research also use will be made of output from a weather model with a high resolution (Harmony) that explicitly solves heavy showers. Ultimately this must lead to an improved probabilistic forecasting system for (heavy) thunderstorms. Details: * directly available * for 6 monhts * preferably 40 hours/week (or 32 if needed) * salary €578 gross per month @ 40 uur per week. Written applications can be sent to Maurice.Schmeits@knmi.nl before 1 October 2018 with reference to KNMI Stage 2018/02 |
| Used skills | |
| Requirements | Meteorology with knowledge on math and statistics. |